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Université Paris 1 - LabEx DynamiTe

Flooding risk perception and effects on exposed real estate : the case of Paris’ inner suburbs

Period: 2016 - 2017

The risk of flooding in winter, in northern France is one of the consequences of climate change. The Ile-de-France region is particularly exposed with 830,000 people and 650,000 jobs located in flood-prone areas (OECD, 2014; IAU, 2011).
The lack of major flood combined with an important land pressure has favored the urbanization of flood prone areas without informing systematically citizens about their exposure to risks.
Even if several laws have imposed a better information about risks since the mid-2000s (approval of numerous flood risk prevention plans (PPRIs) in Ile-de-France, Introduction of the seller and landlord disclosure requirements law (IAL) in 2006 and the Communal Safeguard Plan (PCS) in 2004), the consideration of flooding risk by exposed population seems both every low and uneven according to the municipalities concerned.
We want therefore to carry out a survey on the information and perception of risk in the communes located along the Seine and the Marne rivers in the three department surrounding Paris. We want to identify, on the one hand, the degree of risk awareness and on the other hand, the quality of information dissemination about risks among the population.
The objective is also to measure the influence of the information level on the value of real estate. Since the risk imposes a kind of easement on goods, if people are correctly informed, the price should be lesser than a similar real property with the same amenities located in a safe area...
If this assumption has been confirmed in several studies, one may wonder such a findings can be drawn in a region characterized by an important residential mobility, where real estate prices are high and factors as the socio-economic characteristics of the neighborhood, accessibility to different environmental services and / or amenities are competing with the flood risk consideration. To test these hypotheses we propose to use the hedonic price method.
Furthermore, it will be interesting to assess the effects of the IAL - mandatory disclosure- implemented in June 2006, on real estate values located in areas identified by PPRis using the difference in difference method - a "before" and "after" comparison. Property prices are drawn from a unique and detailed database –BIEN- from 2002 to 2012 compiled by the Chambres of Notaires for the region Ile-de-France.

Updated on : 14 September 2017


Géographie-cités 2011, All rights reserved